Q2 and H1 socio-economic report
Primary GDP, prices, industry, retail, trade and investment data.
Focus: growth quality and domestic demand.
Open official report ↗Read the economy
as a system.
Growth, inflation, rates, FX, fiscal policy, trade and FDI do not exist in isolation. This hub links them into a useful market context — without turning one data point into a trading signal.
SOURCE RULEFigures link to the original publisher; AMY interpretation is labelled separately. Official reports are linked, not republished.
VIETNAM GDP · H1 2026+8.18%Source: NSO
RETAIL SALES · H1 2026+12.9%Year on year
REGISTERED FDI · H1 2026USD 34.65bn+61.0% YoY
DISBURSED FDI · H1 2026USD 13.0bn+11.2% YoY
TOTAL TRADE · H1 2026USD 549.69bn+27.1% YoY
TRADE BALANCE · H1 2026−USD 16.65bnDeficit · monitor
01 · AMY MACRO VIEWFour lenses.
Four lenses.
One system.
Open each theme to separate evidence, interpretation and what matters next. AMY views are scenarios based on public sources, not guaranteed forecasts.
GROWTH & DEMANDMomentum remains strong
GDP and retail data are firm, but quality must be read alongside credit and real purchasing power.
EVIDENCE
H1 GDP grew 8.18%; Q2 grew 8.39%. Retail sales rose 12.9%.
AMY VIEW
Strong momentum supports earnings unevenly. Cash conversion matters more than headline revenue.
WATCH
Real consumption, credit, industrial output, PMI and public investment.
MONEY · RATES · FXConditional policy space
Growth support must be balanced against FX, inflation and asset-quality risks.
EVIDENCE
The IMF highlights more limited easing space when FX and financial-stability risks rise.
AMY VIEW
Lower rates support valuation only when credit quality and earnings expectations hold.
WATCH
USD/VND, interbank rates, credit growth, core CPI and NPLs.
TRADE · FDI · SUPPLY CHAINSStrong capital, wider deficit
FDI signals future capacity; the deficit needs to be split between productive inputs and final demand.
EVIDENCE
Registered FDI reached USD 34.65bn; disbursed FDI USD 13bn; the goods deficit USD 16.65bn.
AMY VIEW
Machinery and input imports may precede production growth; otherwise FX pressure is more concerning.
WATCH
Import mix, export orders, tariffs, local content and FDI execution.
FISCAL · INFRASTRUCTURE · CAPITAL MARKETSPolicy is a capital route
Infrastructure and reform create real demand only when budgets turn into execution.
EVIDENCE
The World Bank and ADB stress public investment, institutions and value-chain upgrading.
AMY VIEW
Do not buy every policy “beneficiary.” Trace budgets, backlogs, delivery and cash collection.
WATCH
Disbursement, funding costs, milestones, market upgrade and realised foreign flows.
02 · OFFICIAL RESEARCH LIBRARYPrimary reports.
Primary reports.
Curated for relevance.
A selected library from statistical agencies, central banks and multilateral institutions.
Vietnam Economic Update
Resilience, exports, investment and reform.
Baseline: 6.8% growth in 2026.
Open source ↗Asian Development Outlook: Vietnam
Growth amid trade and geopolitical risks.
Baseline: 7.2% in 2026; 7.0% in 2027.
Open source ↗Vietnam Article IV Consultation
Fiscal, monetary, FX and financial-sector assessment.
Focus: support versus stability.
Open IMF report ↗A turning point for Vietnam’s capital markets
Infrastructure, upgrade reform and international capital access.
Note: flow estimates are scenarios, not commitments.
Open feature ↗World Economic Outlook Update
Global growth, inflation and policy risks.
Baseline: 3.0% global growth in 2026.
Open WEO ↗OECD Economic Outlook
Energy shocks, inflation and major-economy growth.
Focus: energy and financial conditions.
Open Outlook ↗Annual Economic Report 2026
Inflation, policy, finance and productivity.
Focus: stability risks amid high rates and debt.
Open BIS report ↗Global Trade Outlook and Statistics
Goods and services trade amid changing tariffs.
Vietnam: orders, supply chains and origin rules.
Open WTO report ↗FOMC calendar and statements
Primary USD rate and Fed projection source.
Transmission: DXY, yields, USD/VND and EM flows.
Open FOMC page ↗Monetary-policy releases
Official rates, credit, FX and banking communications.
Rule: prioritise original documents.
Open SBV portal ↗East Asia & Pacific Update
Energy, trade uncertainty and the regional outlook.
Focus: Vietnam export and FDI spillovers.
Open source ↗Editorial standard: “Official” means published by the originating institution. This is a relevance-based selection, not a claim to contain every report. Dates and forecasts remain attached to sources and may change.
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moving next?
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